The gambler’s fallacy

Nov 19th, 2004 | By

‘Dunfermline are due a win at Tannadice.’
Dunfermline defender Scott Wilson, Daily Record, 30 October 2004

When people say they are “due a win”, in sport, gambling or, more metaphorically, in life in general, they are more often than not doing little more than expressing a hope born of despair. But sometimes they also believe that in a very literal sense their luck is due to change.

The idea, usually vaguely rather than explicitly held, is that nature balances things up in the long run, so a recent run of results going one way requires a balancing set of results going the other. Otherwise, as Hamlet might put it, the world is out of joint.

Perhaps the clearest evidence … Read the rest



Cross-hatching

Nov 18th, 2004 10:52 pm | By

Now (she said, throat-clearingly), that comment of Amartya Sen’s is relevant (in my mind at least) to the discussion in Politics and Morality, below. Mark Bauerlein emailed me in a cordial way to point out that there was a survey reported in the Chronicle some months ago which asked professors in all fields about their political allegiance. “Those who considered themselves Left or Center Left outnumbered those Right or Center Right by almost 3 to 1.” So, as I said in an update to that post, that at least partly answers my question about Business schools and the like, and it’s interesting in itself.

But even with that question partly answered, the more I think about this whole subject – … Read the rest



Not the Only Category

Nov 18th, 2004 8:09 pm | By

Amartya Sen makes an excellent point, one I’ve seen him make often before (but it needs to be made over and over again, because it goes against a very strong stream of current opinion and it doesn’t make much headway), in this article in the New York Review of Books.

The richness and variety of early intellectual relations between China and India have long been obscured. This neglect is now reinforced by the contemporary tendency to classify the world’s population into distinct “civilizations” defined largely by religion (for example Samuel Huntington’s partitioning of the world into such categories as “Western civilization,” “Islamic civilization,” and “Hindu civilization”). There is, as a result, a widespread inclination to understand people mainly through

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Intellectual Links Between India and China *

Nov 18th, 2004 | Filed by

Religion is not the only way to understand people, Amartya Sen notes.… Read the rest



Blame Canada – No, Wait, Blame Kant *

Nov 18th, 2004 | Filed by

David Blunkett blames Kant for scepticism about compulsory national identity card. … Read the rest



Not the first time

Nov 18th, 2004 | By Maryam Namazie and Azar Majedi

Maryam Namazie: Theo van Gogh, a film director and journalist, was assassinated in broad daylight in Amsterdam on November 2. He was repeatedly stabbed and his throat slit. They say his assassin has “radical Islamic fundamentalist convictions”. There is a debate on whether this is the act of an individual or the political Islamic movement. Why have you said it is political Islam?

Azar Majedi: This is not the first time we’ve seen that someone who has criticised Islam has been murdered. Political Islam has been massacring, torturing, executing and beheading people for the exact same thing in the Middle East, in Iran under the Islamic Republic of Iran, Afghanistan, the Sudan, and so on. Even when they are not … Read the rest



One Star

Nov 17th, 2004 10:29 pm | By

Oh, what fun. We have an unfavourable review of the dictionary at Amazon – a very unfavourable review. Really doesn’t like it at all, this reader doesn’t. Thinks it’s bad and awful. Well what’s so fun about that! you ask. Well if you look at the review you’ll see. Or don’t bother, I’ll just quote heavily, because I don’t suppose Amazon reviews are exactly copyrighted, are they, and anyway the reviewer is semi-anonymous.

Another trite and innocently framed attack on those intellectuals who are trying to decenter the–and here is a phrase they make fun of–dominant hegemonic discourse, that is so corrosive and debiliating to our civilization. The authors of this book hark back to a mythical Baconian age of

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Jane Kramer on French Hijab Law and Islamism *

Nov 17th, 2004 | Filed by

‘But in France, with all its freedoms, so many young women seem to be capitulating to Islamist pressure.’… Read the rest



Religous Conservativism Not Just a US Thing *

Nov 17th, 2004 | Filed by

Aim is to protect ‘faith-based’ value system against encroaching secularism of west. … Read the rest



Vardy Academies and Creationism *

Nov 17th, 2004 | Filed by

‘As to the whole evolution proposition that we have evolved from slime, I just find it impossible to accept.’… Read the rest



Was Derrida Like the Wizard or Like Toto? *

Nov 17th, 2004 | Filed by

To himself, he was far more like the dog.… Read the rest



Good Enough and Smart Enough?

Nov 16th, 2004 10:33 pm | By

This New York Times article by Ron Suskind about Bush’s ‘faith-based’ certainty got a lot of attention and comment, I gather, but I was away from my desk at the time – away from my desk, from radio and newspapers, from telephones and people, tables and chairs, bread and butter – no, I exaggerate. I was still in civilization. But I was mostly too busy running around and looking at things to pay attention to things like the New York Times magazine or comments on same, so I missed the reaction. But it is a very interesting article. I would like to think it’s a little exaggerated, a little animus-driven – but I’m not sure I can manage it. It’s … Read the rest



Hitchens on the Pornography of Power *

Nov 16th, 2004 | Filed by

Kissinger told Guzzetti not to slow down the rate of kidnappings and murders but to speed it up.… Read the rest



Best Literary Lives *

Nov 16th, 2004 | Filed by

Aubrey, Johnson, Gaskell, Malcolm. Add Boswell, Lewes, Holmes.… Read the rest



Many Xmas Humour Books Are Crap *

Nov 16th, 2004 | Filed by

But some aren’t. Independent fails to mention obvious exception.… Read the rest



Philosophy as Therapy via Thought-Clarification *

Nov 16th, 2004 | Filed by

Tim LeBon cites the Symposium and Stoicism.… Read the rest



Guardian Readers on Livingstone and Qaradawi *

Nov 16th, 2004 | Filed by

Why does mayor meet Qaradawi but not liberal Muslims and victims of Islamist repression and dictatorship?… Read the rest



Items

Nov 15th, 2004 11:09 pm | By

Lotta proofreading done today. So I’ll give myself a little dessert, and link to a few miscellaneous items I’ve been meaning to link to for a week or so.

There is Julian in the Guardian on ‘dating’ for instance. It’s funny, I’m an American, but I’ve always hated that word. It just sounds like such a silly, stilted, unreal, arbitrary activity – ‘dating’.

Although I find US-bashing a tiresome game, I do object to one lamentable feature of the American way of life that has insidiously infected our indigenous culture: dating. When I grew up, no one talked about dating, let alone did it. You “went out” with someone or, if you wanted to be cool, were “seeing” someone. But

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Wormy

Nov 15th, 2004 5:49 pm | By

It was a worm, that’s what. A damn worm. That’s why B&W has been a little quiet for the past few days, and why I wrote a despairing valedictory N&C on Saturday which I later replaced with an incomprehensible one – it’s because I spent three days wrestling with the worm Orobouros. Only I didn’t know that was what I was wrestling with. But my invaluable colleague was able to figure it out and find out how to fix it, so now B&W will be normally noisy again. After today. I have a lot of proofreading to do today (but I may make noise anyway by way of recreation), and then after that – well I have a lot of … Read the rest



Colin Powell Resigns *

Nov 15th, 2004 | Filed by

Lone moderate in US administration some see as hawkish and unilateralist.… Read the rest