Author: Ophelia Benson

  • Deep in Denial

    David Aaronovitch says much of the Left considers America far worse than Saddam’s human rights record.

  • Interview With Steve Jones

    A conversation about gender, sex, males as parasites, and dinner parties.

  • Oh That’s Who Likes Goddesses!

    Saddam Hussein ‘wrote’ a ‘novel’ and, er, borrowed a painting of a ‘goddess’ for the cover. Very spiritual, she looks.

  • Diplomacy

    There was an interview with John Brady Kiesling on Fresh Air last night. He is the former mid-level diplomat who wrote a letter of resignation shortly before the war in Iraq started. The interview was both interesting and depressing, though not very surprising. Kiesling thinks nation-building and democracy-establishing in Iraq will require far more money and attention than the US has any intention of bestowing on them, that the tensions between Kurds and Shiites are going to be even worse than Saddam was, that the US has thrown away the good relations with Europe that the State Department has spent years and the efforts of people like Kiesling building up, and that the US fails to realise how much it benefits from the UN.

    His dissent is all the more interesting in that he is not an across-the-board anti-interventionist. In fact he was one of a group of twelve diplomats who wrote a document in 1994 urging the Clinton administration to intervene in Bosnia to prevent the genocide there. The administration in fact did listen and did change its policy, and Kiesling and the others won an award from the American Foreign Service Association for ‘constructive dissent’. He is neither a pacifist nor an ideologue, he is apprently in fact someone who learns from experience, observation, evidence and other such bits of the world around him that don’t always agree with our preconceptions or wishes. He is correspondingly unimpressed by the president who doesn’t share that ability. He was more explicit about these criticisms in an interview in Salon recently [the interview is premium content but can be read after watching a brief and not-too-revolting advert].

    But what I’ve discovered from the people who’ve searched me out is that there seems to be this incredible unhappiness in the traditional American internationalist foreign policy community that the president, just out of ignorance and ideology, is taking apart what these people had built through careers…Since he is not intellectually equipped to understand why such a huge part of the world could have these negative feelings about us, he’s looking for a simple answer…a president who apparently tunes people out if they disagree beyond a certain point.

    Butterflies and Wheels is all about not letting our preconceptions and wishes, our entrenched positions (as my colleague says) and even our loyalties, get in the way of our ability to notice and understand things like changing circumstances, complicating factors, evidence, competing goods. Kiesling mentions the notion that loyalty may be over-valued in this administration.

    So much of the debate in the United States is not a debate over interests, but a debate over loyalty; are you loyal to the president or not? And put in those terms, the sort of pack mentality does prevail. I guess you could argue that the good of the group requires solidarity in the group, even though that solidarity leads the group to do something insanely stupid.

    I have to agree. Particularly, loyalty to someone who is not intellectually equipped, who looks for simple answers, who is both ignorant and ideological (what a godawful combination), who tunes people out if they disagree with him beyond a certain point. Those may be good qualifications for some kinds of work, but they simply aren’t for the line of work Bush II had the conceit and temerity to think he was fit for.

  • Then Again

    Or maybe the WHO is not over-reacting to SARS after all.

  • Anti-realism – what’s at stake? An interview with Jonathan Rée

    There is a certain caricature of philosophers which has it that they spend
    their time arguing about whether things like tables and chairs exist. This is
    just a caricature, but nevertheless there is an element of truth in it when
    it comes to the debate about realism and anti-realism. Put crudely, realists
    – or, more precisely, external realists – think both that the world exists
    independently of our perceptions of it and thoughts about it, and that we can
    reliably know about the world. Anti-realists, for a variety of reasons, doubt
    both these propositions.


    The philosophical debate about realism and anti-realism – which involves arguments
    about, for example, sense experience, language, and the nature of knowledge
    – is complex and esoteric. However, in recent times, as Jonathan Rée
    points out, it has found more public expression in the concern that scientists
    have about the way that their endeavours are treated by the humanities.


    In fact, this is a long-standing concern. It was in 1959 that C. P. Snow gave
    his famous lecture on ‘The Two Cultures’, in which he expressed dismay at the
    division between the arts and the sciences, and the hostility with which the
    practitioners of each viewed the other. It appeared to him that ‘the intellectual
    life of the whole of western society… [was] increasingly being split into two
    polar groups.’ This he considered both culturally and politically damaging.


    More than forty years on, the divide and hostility remain. These came to the
    fore a few years ago in l’affaire Sokal. Inspired
    by what he saw as the obscurity and ambiguity of much post-modernist writing,
    the physicist Alan Sokal hoaxed the journal Social Text into publishing
    an ostensibly serious article on ‘postmodern physics’ that was in fact a clever
    parody. He followed this up with the book Intellectual Impostures, jointly
    authored with Jean Bricmont, which was sharply critical of the work of some
    of the most fashionable names in the humanities. His motivation, he said in
    The Philosophers’ Magazine, had to do with challenging the rise in a
    ‘sloppily thought-out relativism’ and with exposing ‘the gross abuse of terminology
    from the natural sciences in the writings of French, American and British authors.’


    Sokal is not the only scientist to rail against the shortcomings of the humanities.
    Twenty-eight years earlier, Peter Medawar had warned in Science and Literature
    that he ‘could quote evidence of the beginnings of a whispering campaign against
    the virtues of clarity. A writer on structuralism in the Times Literary Supplement
    has suggested that thoughts which are confused and tortuous by reason of their
    profundity are most appropriately expressed in prose that is deliberately unclear.
    What a preposterously silly idea!’ And Richard Dawkins, in a review of Intellectual
    Impostures
    in the journal Nature, encourages people to ‘Visit the
    Postmodernism Generator [http://www.cs.monash.edu.au/cgi-bin/postmodern]. It
    is a literally infinite source of randomly generated, syntactically correct
    nonsense, distinguishable from the real thing only in being more fun to read…Manuscripts
    should be submitted to the "Editorial Collective" of Social Text,
    double-spaced and in triplicate.’


    It is in the context of these vituperative exchanges that Rée, over
    the last few years, has published a number of essays and articles, which argue
    that the ‘Science Wars’ are based more on misunderstanding than on real disagreements
    about the status of scientific knowledge. Why, I ask him, is he relatively unmoved
    by the clash between the purported ‘friends’ and ‘enemies’ of science?


    "One reason that I am unmoved by the melodrama," he replies, "is
    that historically people have had absolutely no problem with the idea that science
    is a social phenomenon. Scientists such as J. G. Crowther and J. B. S. Haldane
    were very keen on the idea that science was the product of various kinds of
    social relations and that these were the social relations that made it possible
    to produce knowledge that was testable and reliable. They celebrated historical
    studies of science as ways of explaining the heroic progress of science towards
    truth. Now if you imagine yourself back in that situation, then you are reminded
    that there is not necessarily a conflict between social studies of science and
    a belief in the truth content of science."


    However, Rée has one caveat. "It seems to me that these scientists,
    who thought there was no conflict between science and history, had a notion
    of scientific progress that I think was superficial – one that nobody really
    ought to believe anymore. Their model suggested that there was a pre-ordained
    destination which scientific enquiry was going to end up at. But I think that
    one can have a very strong idea of scientific progress, without supposing that
    it is predetermined what is going to be the better form of knowledge that emerges.
    So my notion is that there are lots of possible ways in which science could
    progress in the next century, all of them would be progress, but none of them
    would be the only possible way in which progress could be made."


    The importance of this caveat is that it is suggestive of an anti-realist strand
    in Rée’s thought. Particularly, it seems that in his conception, the
    progress of science is not governed by the nature of the objects of scientific
    enquiry. However, a critic might respond that whilst indeed it is impossible
    to predict how science will progress, it is nevertheless the case that its progression
    will be constrained by the nature of the objects it investigates. And moreover,
    that there are certain ways of looking at the world, certain theories, that
    are effectively dead, for example, Lamarckism – the belief that it is possible
    to inherit acquired characteristics. I asked Rée whether this was a point
    that he would accept and if so whether he felt there was, therefore, no contradiction
    at all between the objectivity of scientific truth claims and the fact that
    science is a social and historical phenomenon.


    "Yes, I think that I would accept these points," he replies. "But
    one of my proposals for advancing this debate is that there should be an embargo
    both on the word ‘objective’ and on the word ‘relativism’. I mean it’s ludicrous
    to think that adding the word ‘objective’ makes a truth any more true. There
    is a very important distinction between propositions that are true and propositions
    that are false. But I don’t know what further distinction is intended by adding
    the word ‘objective’. It is simply a rhetorical move that does mischief to the
    whole debate. What people need to understand is that the only truths that are
    available to us are those of specific historical contexts, but that they are
    no less true for that."


    In a sociological sense, the claim that truths are necessarily historical is
    unproblematic. However, it does raise the question as to the criteria for assessing
    truth-claims. I ask Rée whether he has any settled thoughts on what these
    are?


    "I don’t think," Rée says, "that there is a useful general
    answer to that. I mean there are textbook distinctions between correspondence,
    coherence, and pragmatism, that kind of thing,
    but it doesn’t seem to me that these add up to very much. I think you need to
    ask in more detail about how particular communities work out methods for attaining
    the kinds of true propositions that they want to get agreement on."


    The problem with this kind of answer is that the absence of general criteria
    for assessing truth-claims does seem to suggest the kinds of relativism that
    scientists find so infuriating. If the claim is that both truths and the criteria
    for truth are constituted in particular discourses, then, without adding in
    some extra ingredient, how is it possible to distinguish true propositions from
    false propositions?


    "Well," responds Rée, "I suppose I should first say that
    one should always be cautious before deciding that something is false. It is
    necessary to establish conversations with people who believe seemingly false
    propositions to determine exactly what it is they believe, then, once you’ve
    understood it, you may well find that there is something true in their belief.
    I think one of the side-effects of getting worked up about the idea of objective
    truth is that people do tend to get too impatient to investigate the possibility
    that there may be something they can learn from things that they are at first
    appalled by. But, of course, that is not to say that there are not some beliefs
    that are completely false."


    But again, if the criteria for truth are themselves constituted within discourse,
    what is it that enables us to privilege certain of these criteria so that we
    can meaningfully say that some beliefs are completely false?


    "I think this is why Rorty, who is quite wise about this matter, says
    that you should talk about intersubjectivity rather than objectivity,"
    replies Rée. "The question is not about different realities and
    how they connect up, but different conceptions, different vocabularies, and
    how they connect up. What you need to do is to experiment with trying to have
    conversations with people and to see whether you can negotiate some kind of
    linkage between the way that you’re talking about things and the way that they
    do. To the extent that this strategy is unsatisfactory, it is because our epistemological
    condition is unsatisfactory. I mean the fact is that it can always turn out
    that the things that we are convinced are unrevisably true might in fact be
    problematic in completely unexpected ways.


    ""I said that there are two terms that should be embargoed,"
    continues Rée, "the second one being ‘relativism’. It does seem
    to me that people who put themselves forward as friends of science, use the
    word ‘relativism’ to describe a position that they regard as being totally opposed
    to the notion that there can be such a thing as scientific progress. But if
    that is what relativism is, then I don’t know anyone that believes in it. An
    alternative tactic is to say ‘Sure, we should all be relativists’, because it
    seems to me that when we actually think about what the term relativism means,
    then it is a theory about how you get truth and how you know you’ve got it.
    And it is simply an unfair debating point to suggest that to be a relativist
    is to be someone who does not believe there is such a thing as truth. It is
    just that a relativist is someone who tries to be explicit about the various
    standards by which truth is measured in different contexts."


    All this seems perfectly reasonable. It is, of course, important that people
    who make conflicting truth-claims should attempt to establish points of connection
    in order to examine their respective beliefs and belief systems more closely.
    It is also at least arguable that scientific truths are by their very nature
    provisional. And further, it is the case that truths are constructed within
    particular discourses, and, in that sense at least, they are contextual. But
    a nagging doubt remains. And it is the same point as before. If the validity
    of truth-claims can only be established in terms of criteria that are
    themselves internal to particular discourses, what happens when a person inhabiting
    a non-scientific discourse refuses to accept, despite all attempts at persuasion,
    some of the established truths of science – for example, that the earth is more
    than 6000 years old or that it is not flat? It seems that the logic of the kind
    of position outlined by Rée means that it is not possible to privilege
    the scientific version of truth over the non-scientific version. But surely
    he cannot be happy with that outcome?


    "Well, the truth is," Rée admits, pausing, "that I’m
    not really able to give an interesting answer to the question, as you pose it.
    But I wonder why you put it in terms of beliefs that are so barmy that they
    are scarcely intelligible? What if it were in terms of something like Holocaust
    denial, where there is a genuine disagreement and it’s not really a disagreement
    over criteria. It seems to me that whilst it is undeniably exasperating to find
    people who stubbornly refuse to accept what you take to be pretty conclusive
    evidence, it is not fair to be asked ‘What are you going to do about the fact
    that you can’t change their minds?’ – at some point you just have to shrug your
    shoulders and simply say ‘Well, I can’t.’"


    But there are reasons for posing the question in terms of ‘barmy’ beliefs.
    Firstly, plenty of people believe things which in scientific terms are very
    bizarre – for example, opinion poll data suggests that about a third of Americans
    reject the idea of human evolution, and another third are undecided. And secondly,
    the more bizarre the beliefs, the more it becomes clear what is at stake in
    committing oneself to a conception which holds that the criteria for truth are
    only internal to particular discourses. Specifically, it brings into sharp focus
    the fact that this conception allows no definitive grounds for rejecting propositions
    that we nevertheless are certain are false. So I ask Rée what exactly
    he would say to someone who insisted that the earth was flat or that mermaids
    lived under the sea?


    "What you have to say is that, as far as I can see – and I may always
    be wrong – these beliefs are barmy. I think that the phenomenon that you are
    pointing to is just the fact that people can get into disagreements where it
    is extremely difficult to make any progress. But I think that that is just our
    shared epistemological condition, and I don’t see that claiming that what you’ve
    got is absolute truth and what they have got is not, is going to help. I would
    use the example of barmy beliefs as a way to bring you round to my slogan, which
    is ‘Neither a realist nor an anti-realist be.’


    "Listen," Rée goes on, "everything that the ‘friends
    of science’ want to say about the extraordinary achievements and progress of
    the natural sciences, both in terms of knowledge and in terms of technique,
    all of these things can be said by someone who describes themselves as a ‘relativist’
    and there is no intelligible sense of relativism that would lead you to deny
    the reality of scientific progress."


    So what then about the ultimate structure of the external world? Does the contextual
    nature of all truth-claims mean that this structure is always beyond our reach?


    "Well," says Rée, "I don’t think there is anything more
    satisfactory than invoking the Rorty move that I have already mentioned. This
    consists in saying that there is no real difference between talking in an upbeat
    way about getting to know more about the ultimate structure of the world, and
    talking in a more depressed kind of way about the possibilities of including
    more people in a conversation. It seems to me that they really come to the same
    thing. So the question becomes: how do the particular discourses of specialised
    sciences relate to other scientific discourses and to discourses outside science?


    "If you’re in a conversation with someone who is worried about having
    the ultimate structure of the world taken away from them, then you need to make
    them see that what they’re asking for is beyond what any possible agreement
    in the future about how to look at the world can deliver. They keep saying that
    they want objectivity, but they don’t actually need it, so the point is to close
    the gap and to say ‘You’re worried about being deprived of something that actually
    you haven’t got, and you wouldn’t know if you had.’ It’s a chimera, this thing
    that they’re worried about having taken away from them.


    "Imagine that we’re talking with a scientist," Rée continues,
    "worried about his work not being taken seriously – I think that we’re
    paying all the respect that a scientist could dream that we’d pay to the scientific
    enterprise if we say that relative to human discourses, science improves the
    knowledge and control we have over things that matter to us. Of course, you
    can say ‘Well, it does that because it tells us the truth about the objective
    structure of the world’ – and that’s fine, you can say that, but it’s hardly
    an ontological big deal."


    But if that is what Rée thinks is going on in scientific discourses,
    that they are telling us truths about the objective structure of the world,
    then surely that is a realist position, it is not some kind of half-way house
    position.


    "Yes," admits Rée, "that is what I’m saying, except that
    I think the word objective is a waste of space. Or are you trying to contrast
    the objective structure of the world with its subjective structure? I wouldn’t
    if I were you. But rather than ‘Neither a realist nor an anti-realist be’, perhaps
    I should say, ‘Neither an anti-realist nor an anti anti-realist be!’"


    Selected Bibliography
    ‘Rorty’s Nation’, Radical Philosophy, No. 87, Jan/Feb 1998.


    This interview is extracted from What
    Philosophers Think
    , edited by Julian Baggini and Jeremy Stangroom, and published
    by Continuum
    (2003).

  • Compelled to Read This

    The New Scientist reviews What Philosophers Think and finds it necessary reading for scientists.

  • Nobody Go to Toronto!

    Could the WHO be over-reacting a tiny bit?

  • Get a Grip, Ontario Doctor Says

    SARS is nasty but it’s not the plague.

  • Appeals Panels Versus Teachers

    Teahers’ union calls for an end to panels that can force schools to take back pupils expelled for violence or threats.

  • Students Just Sliding By

    Survey of New York high school students finds them feeling unchallenged.

  • Simple Gifts

    I linked to this essay about George Bush in the Atlantic Monthly a few days ago. I was and still am particularly interested in the depiction of Bush’s narrowness that Richard Brookhiser gives.

    “Practically,” Brookhiser writes, “Bush’s faith means that he does not tolerate, or even recognize, ambiguity: there is an all-knowing God who decrees certain behaviors, and leaders must obey.” While this clear-cut belief structure enables him to make split-second decisions and take action with principled confidence, it also means that he is limited by “strictly defined mental horizons.”…”Bush may be a free-range animal, but he has a habitat, in which he stays. If he needs to know some facts that his advisers don’t know, he can discover them. But if he needs to think some thoughts that they can’t, he may have a hard time doing it.”

    But Brookhiser claims that Bush is a ‘reasonably intelligent man’ despite all this. But is that right? Surely someone who cannot even recognize ambiguity, who stays permanently in a mental habitat, who has a hard time thinking unfamiliar thoughts…Surely that is a pretty good working definition of stupidity? Because it’s wrong, it’s obtuse, it’s unobservant and myopic and unhelpful, to oversimplify things. Isn’t it? Doesn’t that stance indicate a fundamental and damaging mismatch between a person’s ideas about the world and how the world in fact is? How can someone who doesn’t notice something so blindingly obvious – that the world is a complicated, multifarious, difficult, patchwork place, not a simple single easy one – be considered ‘reasonably intelligent’? The world is not a simple, easily grasped, easily managed place, is it. It’s vast, complicated, confusing, contradictory, unpredictable, dangerous. Simple solutions obstinately adhered to no matter what happens or what new research shows or what new evidence reveals is not only a mistake, something that gets a tick in the margin, it’s likely to be the wrong bad harmful destructive thing to do. Which is not to say that leaders should go on pondering forever and never do anything, it’s simply to say they should have the kinds of minds that are aware of a range of possibilities from the beginning.

  • SARS in a Wilderness of Mirrors

    There is an old Chinese folk tale in which a fool
    deposits 300 pieces of silver in a hole. In order to conceal his largesse, he
    puts up a sign nearby to announce that “300 pieces of silver do not lie here.”
    The moral of the tale was that the more you try to cover something up, the more
    obvious it is that something is being concealed.


    The Chinese government, fiercely vigilant when
    it comes to any manifestation of press freedom, are learning this lesson the
    hard way with regard to the viral condition known as SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory
    Syndrome. It used to be thought that in China, the only way of confirming if
    a story was true was if the state-owned press had already emphatically and categorically
    denied it. The belief persists.


    When there is a sort of institutional wall of
    silence on every possible issue, information of some description still squeezes
    itself out somehow. The thirst for news must be slaked, even when there is no
    news. During the brouhaha of the APEC conference, held in Shanghai in Autumn
    2001, the city pricked up its ears amid rumours about unexploded bombs in airports
    and a terrorist assault on a hotel on the city’s main thoroughfare, Nanjing
    Road. Similarly, one could hear whispers in local bars following the outrage
    of 9-11, with stories concerning Shanghai-based Muslim terrorists being rounded
    up by the authorities, and several of them going underground or fleeing to the
    remote West, where, according to another rumour, a fierce military campaign
    against insurrectionaries was being conducted by a joint Chinese-Kazakh army.
    Which of these stories was true? None of them were mentioned in the People’s
    Daily, the organ of the Communist Party, and even if they had been, most readers
    would have remained suspicious. In the West, where the press is considered to
    be relatively free, such a “wilderness of mirrors” approach to the honesty of
    the media is quite commonplace in conspiracy theory circles. In China, with
    the media compelled to “follow Xinhua”, the state-run news agency, scepticism
    is obligatory.


    The internet has offered a valuable outlet for
    a nation starved of debate. But with the internet, any cockeyed rumour one cares
    to invent very quickly rolls out of control. Indeed, one of the main scares
    about SARS in Hong Kong was caused by a fourteen-year old boy who faked a story
    saying that the region had been declared an “infected city”, prompting a wave
    of panic buying throughout the former colony and a volley of denials from the
    authorities.


    No one, of course, trusts the local Chinese press.
    Not even the local Chinese press. Couple that with an insidious network of chatroomers
    and e-mailers, most of whom have heard talk of SARS victims being dragged away
    in the dead of night to secret military hospitals, or of snifflers being dragged
    off aeroplanes just before take-off, and at the very least you have an atmosphere
    of panic. And by the beginning of April, there was a crisis of confidence. Conferences
    were being cancelled from Beijing to Jakarta, and before long, everyone would
    surely be wearing tin-foil hats and gas masks and joining the queue for rations.
    Most of us were running through the list of symptoms, checking our temperatures
    and pulses and wondering whether the malaise, myalgia and dry coughing that
    had been an inevitable part of everday life over the past several years could
    still be attributed merely to the drinking, smoking and late-night parties.


    The lonely fight for facts, it seemed, would be
    left to the foreign press stationed here in China. Meanwhile, the authorities
    finally decided to make their move.


    At the beginning of April, the municipal government
    in Shanghai finally acknowledged that the virus had hit the city. Most of the
    foreign journalists stationed in Shanghai had arrived at a small conference
    room in the International Hotel. The place hissed with gossip, and there was
    a pervasive sense that something momentous was about to be disclosed, that somehow,
    the big SARS balloon that had been blowing up for weeks was about to burst.


    Although the Health Bureau official announced
    that there was only one SARS case in Shanghai, the assumption was, naturally
    enough, that he was lying. At best, a turning point had been reached. This seemed
    to be a compromise, face-saving revelation that would allow more frankness further
    down the line. After all, the government had responded with blanket denials
    up to then, and to shift suddenly from total disavowal to the announcement of
    a dozen deaths would have been too great a volte face. As I write, the
    official figure in Shanghai has risen, but only to two – the victim’s father
    had also succumbed to the illness – and there were also a number of suspected
    cases.


    The reporters at that first press conference were,
    of course, spitting feathers. “The Shanghai government are a responsible government,”
    the spokesman said, to a chorus of groans.


    The natural assumption was, and remains, that
    behind all the reassuring smiles, the city’s hospitals actually resembled scenes
    from Night of the Living Dead. The government had denied the issue for
    so long that it came as no surprise that no one believed them when they began
    to make noises.


    And so, sensitive observers were suddenly noticing
    the ambulances nipping through the traffic, presumably rushing to deal with
    the latest sighting of SARS. Late at night, cleaners were seen to emerge, spraying
    the streets with gallons of Dettol. Minor coughs and colds, common at this time
    of year, were thought to be the beginning of a viral cataclysm.


    It seemed at one point that the scourge of SARS
    was about to bring (a) economic growth, and (b) civilization to an end. It was
    probably unfair to conclude that, finally, after years covering Communist Party
    puppet shows and international business junkets, the hacks at last had something
    to get really indignant about: after all, the panic was palpable, and
    the statistics – particularly from Hong Kong – were thoroughly disturbing. And
    it was undeniable that the Chinese government, despite 20 years of economic
    reform, remain culturally disinclined towards the sort of openness and transparency
    that might have curtailed the spread.


    Last weekend, following the revelation that there
    were as many as 339 diagnosed cases in the capital, almost ten times the previously
    acknowledged figure, a couple of scapegoats were identified, with the mayor
    of Beijing and the head of the Ministry of Health both dismissed. The government
    are now promising full disclosure, but the e-mails continue to flow, the rumours
    keep on rumbling. Who the hell believes them now?


    And so, the panic grows. Staff at the US consulate
    here in Shanghai were heard on Friday April 11 to be suffering from SARS-related
    symptoms, and Reuters breathlessly issued a report. “The US consulate
    in Shanghai said in an email seen by Reuters that two Americans were
    among nine being treated at the Shanghai Pulmonary Disease Hospital with symptoms
    of SARS.” That night, an ominous air seemed to pervade the clubs and bars scattered
    throughout Shanghai.


    But it turned out to be untrue. The victims were
    released from hospital shortly after having been shown to be suffering from
    nothing more than severe colds.


    Meanwhile, the Australian government have now
    put SARS in the same category as the Plague, Cholera and Yellow Fever. This
    follows comments by the New Zealand prime minister, Helen Clark, warning that
    the problem could be even worse than the 1918 flu epidemic.


    Many of the news agencies based in China have
    imposed emergency measures. Among the foreign community, rumours spread very
    quickly, and an otherwise luxurious existence has been laced with danger.


    Even sceptics are hedging their bets, citing the
    belated reaction of the Chinese government as well as the traditional sources
    at the World Health Organization. Public occasions are marked with a curious
    sense of esprit de corps in a climate of pre-storm calm, almost as if
    we are amazed that we have found the courage to leave our homes. The vocabulary
    of foreign residents is now larded with the jargon of virology, and their tales
    – hushed and weary – resonate with all the old fears. We listen to third-hand
    hearsay about the woman in the flat below or some friend of a friend currently
    manning the hospital barricades


    It is better to be safe than sorry, say some.
    Hong Kong – which has already seen its confidence battered in recent years –
    has been shaken to its boots by the SARS crisis. Receipts at Hong Kong’s restaurants
    are reportedly down 50-80%, and its cinemas are empty. Housing sales are down
    65%. There are 70% fewer tourists. One estimate suggests monthly economic losses
    of HK$8billion.


    Analysing the current figures is a difficult business,
    not least because they are rising every day. It is worth noting, however, that
    even if the accumulated total number of cases in Beijing reaches 1,000 in the
    coming days or weeks, it still represents only 0.0075% of the total population,
    and that of all the cases, there seems to be a survival rate of well over 90%.
    The rate is much more worrying in Hong Kong, with an infection rate of about
    0.02% and a fatality rate currently at 6.7%.


    But is the figure worrying enough to justify the
    recent claim made by the popular local e-newsletter and website, www.c-biz.org,
    unerring advocates of the “we’re all going to die” school of journalism? Citing
    the Hong Kong Standard, the newsletter claimed that preventative measures had
    come too late, and that the virus was now “threatening virtually all the country’s
    1.3 billion people”.


    There are other things happening throughout China,
    of course, none of which are covered by the domestic media. There are mass lay-offs
    at state-owned companies leading to strikes and police crackdowns. There is
    the endemic corruption and gangsterism throughout the provincial-level cities.
    There is the ongoing scandal of the Falungong, a tawdry, superstitious little
    cult that was transfigured by the excesses of the State into a pious order of
    martyrs, to which Western pilgrims regularly pay homage on Tiananmen Square
    before being unceremoniously expelled.


    The spread of HIV/AIDS in China has also become
    a subject of concern, with the official number of sufferers currently standing
    at 850,000 and thought to underestimate the real total. According to the darkest
    predictions cited by Kofi Annan in his visit to China last year, that figure
    threatens to multiply to as many as 10 million by 2010. Meanwhile, a recent
    report revealed that tuberculosis still kills 2 million people worldwide every
    year, 98% in developing countries, and that a third of the world’s population
    is infected with the TB bacillus.


    There is something about infectious diseases that
    brings out the worst in us. On April 20, the International Herald and Tribune,
    reporting from Hong Kong, told of yet another side effect of SARS. Victims,
    the report said, were being ostracised. In accordance with government regulations,
    buildings in which infections have taken place are marked clearly with a sign.
    Hong Kong officials were initially reluctant to impose harsh restrictions for
    fear that victims would be “driven underground”.


    Amid the mayhem, I look for rational voices. I
    am consoled by the words of Christine McNab, a spokesman for the WHO speaking
    to The Guardian, who said that most of the cases were in a hospital setting.
    “The rest seem to be people in very close contact with affected people. That
    narrows the risk to the general population. The pattern of how this is moving
    does not indicate at this point that there is a widespread risk to the general
    population.”


    I listen carefully to the words of John Oxford,
    professor of virology at the Queen Mary School of Medicine in London, who said
    that more attention should be paid to the potentially greater threat posed by
    new strains of influenza. “SARS does not look like it is explosively infectious,”
    he said. “Most of the cases seem to have come out of hospitals, among doctors
    and nurses, all of whom have been in very close contact with ill people. It
    is causing problems in certain environments, but it’s not zipping around the
    globe.”


    And yet, by now the panic is more infectious than
    the virus itself, and even the sturdiest of observers are struck regularly by
    the thought that infection is just a stray droplet or contaminated elevator
    button away. As is the case in most health scares, the very act of paying attention
    – of isolating, analysing and comparing statistics – creates a potent symbolic
    space, one which draws on all our fears about mutating bacteria, outfought immune
    systems, and mass pandemics, and leaves very little room for a sense of proportion.

    David Stanway is a writer, editor and translator living in Shanghai.

  • Could Do Better

    Matt Ridley is making good progress in agreeing with Steven Rose, Steven Rose says.

  • Theory

    Don’t you wish you’d been there? No? No, nor do we.

    External Resources

  • Fund Vocational Training Too

    Engineering and technical apprenticeships should have as much money and esteem as academic subjects.

  • We Need Reductionism

    Thomas DeGregori on the scientific advances ‘reductionism’ has made possible.

  • Iraqi History and Archaeology

    The story of the looting of the Iraqi National Museum and other museums in Iraq is an interesting and deeply discouraging one. A giant hole has been blasted in the world’s stock of available knowledge that will never be completely repaired. Even if all the missing artworks do eventually turn up on the black market (a highly unlikely if), that still leaves all the books and manuscripts that went up in flames at the National Library, and all the artworks that are not missing but smashed. Whatever the neglect or indifference of the Pentagon in not protecting the sites, the damage is done now, and people who think history and knowledge are good things are in shock.

    Slate has a thorough story here. The Guardian has one on the warning the Pentagon had here. The New York Times reports some further details here. The Wall Street Journal gives its own peculiar view of things here and here. There are useful pages here, here, and here.

    The Washington Post reports the Pentagon was warned of the risks to Iraq’s archeological heritage and the National Museum in particular here. The San Francisco Chronicle reports here that the Pentagon did warn the military to spare archaeological sites where possible. The Washington Post reports here that there were not enough troops to do the job.

  • Idealism

    Ian Buruma says in this article in Prospect that the source of the bitterness between France and the US is that they are the two great missionary-revolutionary countries, the two great believers in universals, only they have different ‘universals’ (quite a paradoxical outcome). Both are idealist nations, both are the proud inheritors of institutions and values born in violent revolution, but the ideals and institutions and values are not the same ones. So we come to Liberty fries and Liberty toast and a deluge of Francophobe jokes on the Internet.

    But it’s possible that Buruma overestimates US idealism at times.

    Unless one believes, like Noam Chomsky, that the war was fought for the sake of corporate interests, that too was at least partly the result of American idealism. Presidents Kennedy and Johnson thought they were protecting Asian dominoes from falling to communist tyranny.

    Well, that’s debatable. It’s debatable whether they really thought that at all, and how large a part the thought played in our ending up there, and how idealistic the thought was even if they really did think it. How much room did ideas about protection from tyranny have among other ideas about great power rivalry and ‘credibility’, along with thought-free zones of inadvertence and ratcheting effects (send just a few thousand troops to help the South Vietnamese, then send a few thousand more to help the first ones, then…)? And above all how much breathing room did they have among thoughts about domestic politics and the next election? There is a sobering conversation between Johnson and McGeorge Bundy in the summer of 1964, in Michael Beschloss’ book and tape Taking Charge, recordings and transcripts of Johnson’s phone conversations. Johnson expresses deep misgivings about sending young men, sons of people he knows, off to war, but then says he can’t possibly give the Republicans a chance to call him weak, and possibly lose the election.

    And then there is the vexed question of how genuinely ‘idealistic’ the anti-communist stance really was. It can’t have been a purely idealistic opposition to totalitarianism or dictatorial rule, can it? Because if it had been, we wouldn’t have supported so many ferociously anti-communist but also just plain ferocious dictators, would we. Surely the anti-communism-trumps-everything policy had some roots whose idealism was at least debatable, such as hatred of atheism and secularism, and even more, hatred of economic egalitarianism. Communism was always hated and feared because it was a threat to profit and property rights and rich people. Some choose to see that as idealistic, but the matter is at least debatable. Ronald Reagan liked to get starry-eyed over the US as a place where someone can always get enormously rich. Other people are not so moved by a place that rejoices in by far the largest wealth and income gap in the industrialised world. Economic egalitarianism may be wrong-headed, foolish, an economic poison-pill, but I still find it hard to see devotion to markets and profits and vast inequality as idealistic.

  • Heat and Light Between Scientists

    Shock-horror at tampering with the speed of light; coarse and flippant attacks on peer review.