Feeling lucky?
A letter to the WSJ from Mark Boslaugh and Michael Mann:
In “Climate Change Brings a Flood of Hyperbole” (op-ed, Aug. 11), Steven Koonin put himself in the unenviable position of playing down climate change precisely while we are experiencing unprecedented heat waves, storms, fires, droughts, and floods that exceed model-based expectations.
Yes but these are some other kind of heat waves, storms, fires, droughts, and floods, the kind that have nothing to do with climate change.
Mr. Koonin claims that regional projections are “meant to scare people.” But the paper he cites for support addresses the “unfolding of what may become catastrophic changes to Earth’s climate” and argues that “being able to anticipate what would otherwise be surprises in extreme weather and climate variations” requires better models. In other words, our current models cannot rule out a catastrophic future.
Model uncertainty is two-edged. If we’d been lucky, we’d be discovering that we overestimated the danger. But all indicators suggest the opposite. Those who dismiss climate risk often appeal to uncertainty, but they have it backward. Climate uncertainty is like not knowing how many shots Dirty Harry fired from his .44-caliber Magnum. Now that it’s pointed at our head, it’s dawning on us that we’ve probably miscalculated. By the time we’re sure, it’s too late. We’ve got to ask ourselves one question: Do we feel lucky? Well, do we?
The trouble is, though, it’s mostly people who will be comparatively lucky who are doing the decision-making. It’s people who are already adults, most of them adults of long standing. They won’t be around for the worst stuff, and they can’t seem to bring themselves to care enough about a future that won’t have them in it to do the right things now. Everybody’s still stuck in short-term thinking. Humans may be incapable of doing anything else when it requires major upheaval. The people alive now don’t want to stop flying all over the planet and driving big SUVs and building a second house in Phoenix or Miami.
Nature always bats last.
“Nature always bats last.” Omar #1 Yes: heat waves, storms, fires, droughts, and floods are perfectly natural, like rain falling down (not up) and carbon dioxide absorbing infrared. “We experience the unspeakability of nature as its utter indifference to human culture. We respond to it as a challenge, an invitation to confrontation and struggle. We take nature on as an opponent to be subdued for the sake of civilization. Nature’s perfect silence is a silence so complete there is no way of knowing what it is silent about–if anything.” (Carse, F&IG)
“Everybody’s still stuck in short-term thinking. Humans may be incapable of doing anything else when it requires major upheaval.” OB
Unfortunately some recent reactions to the pandemic confirm this (as well as history).
“And they all say: Hallelujah. Yodellayheehoo.
Every man for himself. Ooo coo coo.
Golden cities. Golden towns. Thanks for the ride.
Big Science. Hallelujah. Big Science. Yodellayheehoo”
Laurie Anderson, “O Superman”
Perhaps the events in 2021 (fire storms in western North America and Europe, flooding in Europe, drought) are what is needed. Large numbers of us at the ground level now experience the consequences. The uncertainty of the connection of these events to climate change can be estimated (Friederike Otto, University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford and colleagues). This unavoidable awareness could accelerate action at COP26 in Glasgow this fall.
Mark Carney and Michael Bloomberg created a framework, the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). The private sector currently has no requirement to adhere to the TCFD, but investors are currently forcing companies to disclose plans for decarbonization (including collateral impacts) and show progress or face proxy votes against management–or even potential divestment.
Peter Eisenberger (“REME — Renewable Energy and Materials Economy — The Path to Energy Security, Prosperity and Climate Stability”, arXiv:2012.14976), for example, takes a long term view.
Maybe dark humor (if you can call it that) is not appropriate in this context, but some time ago we had a good consultant on modeling (unrelated to climate) ask us:
“How do we know God has a sense of humor?”
“Because the world is nonlinear.”
JW:
IMHO the Original Sin had nothing to do with snakes and apples. Rather, it was philosophy. (Clerics and philosophers got into too many disputes.)
But although God has been known to get cranky at times, I don’t think he is a sadist. If he was, the Second Law of Thermodynamics would probably be the reverse of what it is. Water would flow uphill, time would run backwards, and pi would be a perfectly rational number, like say 10/1.
That will have to be all for now, as I am busy squaring a circle. When I’m done, I’ll get back to you. Meanwhile: https://theconversation.com/how-a-farm-boy-from-wales-gave-the-world-pi-55917
George Will had a cringe-inducing column in the WaPo last week based on Koonin’s work. I don’t know why people think Will is some kind of intellectual, just because he uses big words and wears a bow tie. He’s mostly a dunce. An erudite dunce, but a dunce nonetheless.
He’s kind of the slightly cleverer David Brooks.