Hmm.
Iowa.
I was waiting outside the PNC Music Pavilion in Charlotte, North Carolina after Vice President Kamala Harris’s rally when my phone started to blow up. Ann Selzer, the vaunted pollster of Iowa, had just dropped a poll showing that Harris was leading Trump by three points in the Hawkeye State — a state Trump had won twice. Everyone in the political world wanted to talk about it.
The Trump campaign knew how bad this news looked. Tony Fabrizio and Tim Saler, the Trump campaign’s data men, released a memo challenging the findings almost immediately.
Not long afterwards, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Harris leading in North Carolina, as well as Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. If Harris wins all four, she would not even need to win Pennsylvania, Arizona or Michigan in order to win the entire election.
Interesting.
30 hours or so and we’ll know.
Comments
4 responses to “Portents”
Best of luck!
Eight years ago, the election was held on my birthday; and, to my great disappointment, the wrong candidate won. What with the Breakshit result too, I was not very happy with certain people back then.
In the words of a Facebook friend, “Nauseously optimistic.”
It’ll be whatever it’ll be. Election forecasting is difficult.
To all my American friends, I wish you (and by extension the rest of us) all the very best for tomorrow and the days to come. I expect there will be some turbulence even if Harris wins.
From what I’m seeing on BlueSky there are a lot of people doing their absolute best to GOTV and to address the worst of the gerrymandering and vote suppression.
High on my wish list, assuming the Democrats outperform expectations in the Senate and Congress, is for SCOTUS reform and Federal judge reforms more generally. In my dreams the GOP stranglehold on states with appalling voter laws is broken so those can actually be made fair and reasonable.