Never felt
Kate Nash has taken an apparent swipe at JK Rowling in a new pro-trans single. Germ, a spoken word track, consists of a repeated declaration that an unnamed “girl” is “exclusionary, regressive, misogynist” for raising concerns about transgender issues.
Nash has said it is transphobic to exclude trans women from female-only lavatories and sports, and declared in the track that she had “never felt threatened by a trans person”.
And as we all know, if one person has never felt threatened by X, that is irrefutable proof that X is safe for everyone on the planet. There’s a bear racing toward you looking hungry, but don’t worry, I don’t feel threatened by that bear, therefore it won’t eat you.
On the subject of popular music, this tune makes me think of Kate Nash:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip04ssomt40
From the single:
Someone should tell Nash about the base rate fallacy.
So close. So, so close.
If only 91% are “cis” men, then 9% are not. I assume a few of these are…what? Women? Probably, but it’s a very small number.
Since trans make up less than 1% of the population (figures vary, apparently, and a lot of sites throw ‘non-binary’ into the stats), and trans women are approximately 38% of trans, if any measurable portion of that 9% is transwomen, then they are offending at a much higher rate than their numbers would indicate, if they are in fact “safe”.
I get sick of people citing statistics without understanding them.
The 91% stat is sexual assault. The 9% is made up of women, under 18s, and where the justice system’s data is incomplete.
There are around 11 GRC wielding trannies in prison, in the whole of the UK. The popular meme trope on sexual offending around is wrong, it’s statistical sleight of hand. It more accurately says that, based on 50 frock wearing men out of 11,000 male sex offenders in prison, a man in a frock is 2000 times LESS LIKELY to assault you than any other random guy.
It doesn’t take that much effort to work this out, it’s all verifiable, let’s see if you’re honest enough to publish this.
Yes, lets.
Female people are women and girls, male people are men and boys, with neither needing ‘cis’. Trans women are male and are therefore men. And while we’re on the subject of identifying things accurately:
Yes, they are. Because they are female. This violence is based on sex, not some nebulous notion of identity.
And then some massive hypocrisy:
This line is in a song comparing a group of people or perhaps JKR in particular to germs.
P.S.
Isn’t boxing ‘actual violence’?
Nash’s five-minute earache is getting predictably sycophantic coverage from the media:
Plus, GERM is now available on Youtube, Apple Music, Bandcamp, Soundcloud, Deezer and all the other big music distribution platforms (that was quick!)
A few months ago, Kate Nash’s music career looked like it was in serious trouble.
But now she’s backed the cause of AGPs and chasers, ” everyone worth knowing is kissing her behind”.
Kev:
That’s among the prison population. But what about on the outside, in the women’s toilet down the street.? Is .entering one of those while dressed up in drag likely to get you a stretch inside? Or maybe just a gentle rap over the knuckles by a judge or magistrate who is having a hard time keeping a straight face?
According to the UK census, 0.1% of the UK population is transwoman. According to the statistic you cite, 0.1% of the sexual offender population is GRC wielding trans, and I suspect most, if not all, are male. Which means that transwomen are not 2000 times less likely to be a sexual offender, but approximately as likely.
However…62% of the trans women population in prison have committed at least one sexual offense. The number for male prisoners is lower.
Keep in mind, this is only the population in prison. While sources on Google suggest that this means we should not extrapolate to the whole population (which I agree, but…), the number of sexual offenses that go uncaught, untried, and/or unconvicted suggest the actual number is higher for both groups – male and male, as the case goes, though one of the groups claims not to be male.
This suggests that the group LEAST LIKELY to behave properly in a women’s prison is trans women, though that is of course only a shaky conclusion without more evidence. It is an argument against putting trans women into women’s prisons.
It is difficult to find out what percentage of men perpetrate sexual assault, but I have seen estimates that it is anywhere from 1% to 33% of adult males. I suspect the differential has to do with the definitions of rape, which vary by country, but also whether or not they include forcing a significant other, which at one time wasn’t really considered rape but is now.
With these figures, which are limited, most of us consider it perfectly reasonable for women to exercise care around men. While most rapes are perpetrated by someone who is known, women tend to be more wary of men they don’t know. But if the number is only 1% of men perpetrating rape, then why in the world are we avoiding men? If only 11,000 men in the UK have been convicted of sexual assault, then why should we think we’re in danger?
Because…we have no way of knowing which of those men ARE dangerous. We have no way of knowing, that is, until the assault occurs, or there is some credible threat of assault. Same with transwomen. It doesn’t matter if most of the population of transwomen are convicted sexual offenders, sexual offenders who were not convicted, sexual offenders who were never brought to trial or maybe even arrested, or not a sexual offender at all. The majority of men are not in any of the sexual offender categories, but we are justified in extrapolating to the entire male population in the sense of making spaces where women can be safe from them. Why would transwomen be any different?
Even if they were 2000 times less likely to commit rape (which is not shown by your statistic), it is logical and sane to prevent transwomen from violating boundaries to enter women’s spaces. It doesn’t have to be most of them. It doesn’t have to be even many of them. If we cannot tell the difference until it is too late, they need to be prevented from having easy access to vulnerable populations.
“You’re not radical” she says. Knowing men are not women isn’t radical at all. Who came up with the term TERF anyway? A feminist? I think not.
And once again the presence or absence of a GRC is just a red herring. To get an accurate idea of the magnitude of the problem, we have to look at the totalt number of TIMs convicted of sexual assault.
Turns out, TERF is credited to Viv Smythe, a self proclaimed “trans ally” who also claims she’s a radfem — although an “inclusive” one. Or “identifies as” I guess. Maybe she doesn’t really know what radical feminism is?
I agree with Bjarte, GRCs are a red herring. According to 2020 prison statistics for England and Wales, mtf trans offenders are 3.5 times more likely to be sex offenders than other male inmates, and 18 times more likely than female inmates:
76 sex offenders out of 129 transwomen = 58.9%
125 sex offenders out of 3,812 women in prison = 3.3%
13,234 sex offenders out of 78,781 men in prison = 16.8%
These figures are consistent with similar Canadian and US prison stats.
iknklast, #3:
I would suppose that under-18 males make up a significant portion of the remaining 9%.
Kev Sweeney, #4:
I’m sorry, but I’m not quite sure of how to work this out. 11,000 / 50 = 220, is that perhaps the number you inteded to write? Or are you relying on further figures which you didn’t mention in your comment?
The problem is, I don’t know what you mean by “LESS LIKELY to assault you.” It’s certainly true that TIMs are less likely to be responsible for any specific case of assault, because they’re only a small subset of males and they’re not committing offenses at a massively higher rate. However, that doesn’t mean that your average TIM has committed less sexual offenses than your average male. Likewise, you’re much less likely to be assaulted by a left-handed man than any other random guy, but that doesn’t mean left-handed men are safer.
Also, as pointed out by Omar (#6), not all assaulters end up in prison, and men doing prison time for assault are likely not a very representative sample of men who commit assault.
Mosnae, he simply took the percentage of 11 to 11,000…that is about as flawed a calculation in statistics as I have seen in recent times (since I retired; I saw things like that all the time when I was teaching). For his assumption to be correct, there would need to be as many transwomen as there are men in the general population, and it’s not even close.
Not to mention, the way the trans advocates want to do things would be giving increased access to those males who are not trans, because we are supposed to assume they belong there. That could substantially increase the number of assaults on women in public facilities.
“ men doing prison time for assault are likely not a very representative sample of men who commit assault.”
Indeed, one of the projects examining untested rape kits in evidence police had gathered from sexual assaults found that, on average, the rapists they were identifying by testing the kits had committed 13 rapes by the time they were identified.
#4 Kev Sweeney
You note there are ‘around 11’ trans women holding a GRC in prison, but this figure does not include all trans women because a person does not need a GRC to be considered trans. You seem to acknowledge this in your next sentence, if ‘frock wearing men’ is your term for trans women; when using this figure, we see they comprise %0.4545… of the stated 11,000 strong male prison population. If the UK census has their population at %0.1 of the population, as cited by iknklast at #8, this makes them 4.545… times overrepresented in sex offending resulting in imprisoment!
You might claim the census undercounts them, as many trans people believe there is strong reason to keep their trans status private to avoid negative attention, meaning the actual proportion of the general population is higher than that figure, deflating their apparent overrepresentation in prison by an unknown degree. But if we are going to permit the possibility of trans people going uncounted in the general population, we must also admit that possibility also exists for the prison population, which would tip the ratio in the other direction.