Guest post: He wants to be capo di tutti capi

Written by

February 28, 2026

Originally a comment by Steven on A war of choice.

Iran responds by…attacking Saudi Arabia. Makes sense.

It does make sense.

Trump acts like a Mafia boss. He’s boss of the U.S.; now he wants to be capo di tutti capi (boss of all bosses). He is demonstrating his ability to remove other capos. He removed Maduro; now he is going after the Iranian leadership. Pick off the ones who defy you and the rest will fall in line. It is the same tactic that he uses to keep Republican legislators obedient to him: he primaries any who aren’t.

But Saudi Arabia is already obedient to Trump. They do him obeisance; they paid the $1B bribe to be on his Board of Peace. As with any extortion racket, what protection money paid to Trump mostly gets you is protection from Trump. But at some point, Trump does have to be able to protect the people who pay him. If he can’t, then their calculus changes. Maybe they start doing deals with each other (cf. the E.U.) Maybe they decide to take their chances with a U.S. air strike.

So it does make sense for Iran to attack Saudi Arabia. It is one of the few things they can do that will matter to Trump.

Comments

7 responses to “Guest post: He wants to be capo di tutti capi”

Omar

Feb 28, 2026 12:53 PM

OB: A very insightful post. Many thanks.
Your Name’s not Bruce?

Feb 28, 2026 3:07 PM

He is demonstrating his ability to remove other capos. He removed Maduro; now he is going after the Iranian leadership.

There might be more to it than that, too. As Jim Wright/Stonekettle points out on Facebook, this attack on Iran (which will likely close the Straits of Hormuz to oil tnker traffic) makes more sense when taken in conjunction with taking control of Venezuelan oil production. https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=26085964657678924&set=gm.3486914101464344&idorvanity=795017370654044
Your Name’s not Bruce?

Feb 28, 2026 5:54 PM

Iran has now confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed in the attack.
Artymorty

Feb 28, 2026 7:23 PM

Insightful post, indeed. It’s provided, for me, much-needed context and analysis to the developing situation.

Thanks, Steven. And thanks, OB.

Cheers!
tigger_the_wing

Mar 1, 2026 6:06 AM

Isn’t Iran attacking Saudi Arabia and others because of the US military bases in those countries?
J.A.

Mar 1, 2026 6:18 AM

Why do you look for your lost car keys under a streetlight? Because it’s the only place you can see. Why is Iran attacking U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf? Because it’s where their missiles and drones can reach.

Meanwhile a 99 year old cleric in Iran is now calling for all Muslims to attack the U.S. and Israel and it’s falling on deaf ears. Guess it’s one thing to call for a fatwa against a mild-mannered writer and another to attack nations who are quite capable of hitting back. Iran really has no friends, not even the Russians, and there’s a reason why that is.
Jim Baerg

Mar 1, 2026 9:36 AM

So I look up Hormuz and as well as information about how much oil & LNG goes through that strait, I find information on pipelines countries in the area have been building or restoring to bypass that strait. Eg: the UAE has a pipeline to a port on the Gulf of Oman side of the peninsula that makes that strait so narrow. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to a Red Sea port. Iraq and Syria are restoring a pipeline from Iraqi oil fields to a Syrian port on the Mediterranean.

Lots of people have been concerned about that vulnerability and trying to reduce it.