‘Scientifically Creationism is worthless, philosophically it is confused, and theologically it is blinkered beyond repair.’
Author: Ophelia Benson
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Rupert Murdoch, Post-Modernist
Fox News loves to tease the left: ‘fair and balanced, hahahaha!’
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Where Malaria is Treated by Yelling
Religion is mental illness and in Afghanistan the symptoms are florid.
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Donald Davidson
While awaiting real obituaries.
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Gossip, Gossip, Everywhere
Rather dykey, probably a spy, greasy kitchen, filthy loo – Wilson does Murdoch.
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Influenza
As you may have noticed, I have a perennial or chronic or obsessive interest in the question of what one might call cultural influence. Or one might call it memes, or fashion, or groupthink, or conformity, or any number of things. And in being interested in that, I also become interested in the self-fulfilling prophecy. That is to say, I’m interested in the way people (especially influential people) say things like ‘Most Americans believe in God/family values/the market’ and the statement becomes a little bit more true for having been said. I say Americans partly because I am one so I hear more of the American version than the UK one, and partly because I think there is probably more of that kind of thing here than there is there. It may be no accident (she said darkly) that the word ‘bloody-minded’ isn’t part of the American idiom. I think it’s one of those things like the apocryphal 900 Inuit words for snow, or however many it’s supposed to be. Sapir-Whorf. That we don’t have the word and so we can’t really quite imagine the state of mind. If people keep nagging us endlessly to have ‘faith’ or to admire dimwits in high office, well, there’s a bit of water on a stone effect. Drip drip drip. We like to think we’re terrifically independent and individualistic, but…that nice herd of sheep does look awfully cozy and happy and comfortable, I think I’ll just sidle over and kind of insinuate myself among them.
So when a lot of Deep Thinkers and think tank occupants and Religious Leaders and Senators and actors and suchlike important people make what seem to be simple factual descriptive comments on what a religious people we are, they’re not just describing or stating the facts, they’re also telling us to go and do likewise. Most people do and therefore you ought to too, obviously. Most people do and so who the hell do you think you are doing something different? Most people do and therefore they must be right, because most people are never wrong. Most people do and so you have to because this is a democracy, remember?
It’s not usually explicit, that kind of thing. But then that makes it all the more insidious. Perhaps if it were explicit, even we would be bloody-minded enough to resist. But since it’s not, the drip drip has its effect. We start to feel a little uneasy. ‘Who do I think I am? Can that many people all be wrong while I’m right?’ And so the statistics inch up and up, until pretty soon the opinion polls will be telling us that a full 99% of Americans believe in God and that last 1% will just have to move to a cabin in the mountains or emigrate or something.
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Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi?
The case for astrology
An expanded abstract of the article in Journal of Consciousness Studies Volume 10 (6-7), June-July 2003, pages 175-198 with four tables and 85 references. This particular issue of JCS is devoted to parapsychology and related matters, and is also available in book form. Details, abstracts, and the full article in pdf format are available at www.imprint.co.uk/books/psi.html. See also the user-friendly www.astrology-and-science.com/ for critical articles on astrology by the same authors and others.
Why astrology?
Astrology has one sure thing in common with parapsychology – a highly visible outpouring of market-driven nonsense that threatens to bury the work of serious researchers. Just as parapsychology to the ordinary person means ghost busting and psychic phonelines, so astrology means sun signs and newspaper columns. Here we ignore the latter view in favour of serious astrology, the study of purported relationships between the heavens and earthly affairs.
Astrology can be applied to anything that is born or begins independent existence such as a person, company, ship, nation, animal, or idea, and the astrologer begins by calculating the birth chart or horoscope, a stylised map of the heavens at the moment of birth as seen from the place of birth (think of a wheel covered in strange symbols). Then comes the difficult part, namely the interpretation or birth chart reading, where the strange symbols and their positions are translated into a discourse that the client can understand. It is here that the possible relevance of astrology to psi becomes apparent.
Many astrologers attribute a successful birth chart reading to what they variously call intuition or psychic ability, where the birth chart acts like a crystal ball. As in shamanism, they relate consciousness to a transcendent metaphysical reality that, if true, might require a re-assessment of present biological theories of consciousness.
Cynics might argue that the prospects are not good. Even after centuries of practice, astrologers still cannot agree on what a birth chart should contain, how it should be interpreted, or what it should reveal. Nor do they agree on how astrology should be tested, or even on whether it can be tested in the first place. They are also generally unaware of the many hidden persuaders such as the Barnum effect (reading specifics into generalities) and nonfalsifiability (nothing can count against your idea) that can make astrologers see hits where none exist. Technically these hidden persuaders can be described as “statistical artifacts and inferential biases”.
Indeed, it is not uncommon for astrologers to make a seemingly accurate reading only to discover it was based on the wrong birth chart, which they then attribute to some mysterious property of astrology. It seems that critical thinking, and being informed about relevant research, is not for them.
Nevertheless let us accept that astrologers may use some sort of intuition or psychic ability when reading a birth chart. Because the incidence of astrologers and serious students of astrology is roughly 1 in 10,000 of the general population, their total number is substantial and our chance of detecting psi and anomalous states of consciousness is correspondingly increased, which is an opportunity not to be lightly passed by. On the other hand, their 0.01% incidence is very much less than the 4% incidence of fantasy-prone personality (one that fantasises vividly during much of waking life), so who knows?
Empirical studies of astrology
Although very few empirical studies of astrology existed before 1950, their number now exceeds five hundred. Their results have revolutionised our understanding of astrology, and coherent reviews are now possible. In what follows we look first at the performance of astrology, for which the definitive test is time twins, and then at the performance of astrologers. If astrologers can do better than astrology would seem to allow then we might be on to something.
Suppose that at one moment the heavens signify that people born at that moment will have characteristic A, the next moment it is characteristic B, and so on. Time twins (people born close together in time) should therefore be more alike than expected by chance, and more alike than people born further apart in time. Time twins are thus the definitive test of astrology because errors or uncertainties of birth chart interpretation are avoided.
The first systematic study of time twins was reported by British astrologers Peter Roberts and Helen Greengrass in 1994. Their sample of 128 people showed some evidence of similarities in interests and occupation, for example two born 15 minutes apart were respectively a bassoon player and a clarinet player, but there were no clear similarities in appearance, handwriting, names, or life events. The strong similarities predicted by astrology were simply not there.
We conducted a more powerful test involving 2101 persons born in London during 3-9 March 1958 averaging 4.8 minutes apart. For each person 110 variables were available, including ability test scores, interests, and ratings of behaviour, all of which are supposed to be shown in the birth chart. The test conditions could hardly have been more conducive to success but the results were uniformly negative. The effect size due to astrology, expressed as a correlation on a scale of 0 to 1, was 0.00 ± 0.03.
The above result is consistent with other empirical studies, which when free of artifacts have consistently failed to find effects commensurate with astrological claims. Here, however, such a result is actually good news, because if artifact-free tests of astrologers are found to give positive results it might suggest the existence of human abilities of interest to parapsychologists.
Studies of Astrologer Accuracy
Tests of astrologer accuracy generally involve astrologers matching birth charts with information such as personality profiles or case histories, where a hit rate significantly better than chance would be evidence that they are on to something. Meta-analysis of more than forty controlled studies suggests that astrologers are unable to perform significantly better than chance even on the more basic tasks such as predicting extraversion. The mean effect size is 0.05 ± 0.12, p = 0.66, equivalent to getting 52.5% hits when 50% is expected by chance. Visual plots indicate the existence of a publication bias against negative results, which probably accounts for the weak positive direction.
More specifically, astrologers who claim to use psychic ability perform no better than those who do not. The results are no better when the astrologers are given all the case history material they ask for including photographs. Nor can people pick their own chart reading when given several to choose from, a result based on ten studies in which give-away cues were known to be absent.
There is clearly nothing here to suggest that astrologers can perform usefully better than chance, or that your own chart reading fits you better than someone else’s, regardless of how the reading is made or how well the conditions are stacked in the astrologer’s favour.
Studies of Astrologer Agreement
Astrologers tend to dismiss the above findings as the result of asking the wrong questions, albeit without ever telling us what the right questions should be. But such ploys are irrelevant when testing agreement among astrologers, simply because the truth of their answers and the usual philosophical arguments about truth are now of no consequence. Our only concern is agreement, the extent to which astrologers agree on what a given chart indicates.
Meta-analysis of 25 controlled studies suggests that astrologers show negligible agreement on their chartt readings, and equally poor agreement on their confidence in those readings. The point is, we might conceivably explain away poor effect sizes for hits, but not poor agreement or the inconsequence of confidence. If astrologers cannot agree on what a given birth chart indicates, or on their confidence in that indication, then what price astrology and the supposed intuitions of astrologers?
Conclusion
Our concern in this article has been to measure the performance of astrology and astrologers. A large-scale test of time twins involving more than 100 cognitive, behavioural, physical and other variables found no hint of support for the claims of astrology. Consequently, if astrologers could perform better than chance, this might support their claim that reading specifics from birth charts depends on psychic ability and a transcendent reality related to consciousness. But tests incomparably more powerful than those available to the ancients have failed to find effect sizes beyond those due to non-astrological factors such as statistical artifacts and inferential biases. The possibility that astrology might be relevant to consciousness and psi is not denied, but if psychic influences exist in astrology, they would seem to be very weak or very rare. Support for psychic claims seems unlikely.
Further reading
For critical articles on astrology see www.astrology-and-science.com/
Postscript for Butterflies and Wheels
The JCS article was featured in a half-page article in the UK Sunday Telegraph 17 August 2003 that raised a storm of protest from astrologers who generally showed no awareness of relevant research or even of the original JCS article. An example is the article by astrologer Neil Spencer in The Guardian 19 August 2003, which featured briefly on the B&W website under the heading “Oh That Old Ploy.” The objections he raised were already fully answered by either the JCS article or previous publications, and thus made no sense. (Spencer’s article is at www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,1021328,00.html)
More subtly, the protesting astrologers saw the JCS article as the case against astrology when it was merely an examination of astrology’s relevance to consciousness and psi. Our other articles on astrology have included the case for astrology, which is summarised in the following excerpt from www.astrology-and-science.com, starting with the case against:
The case against astrology
The case against astrology is that it is untrue. It does not deliver benefits beyond those produced by non-astrological factors, it has not contributed to human knowledge, it has no acceptable mechanism, its principles are invalid, and it has failed hundreds of tests. But no hint of these problems will be found in astrology books, which in effect are exercises in deception. But it doesn’t end there.
Astrologers disagree on almost everything, even on basics such as which zodiac to use. They rarely test control data, which is why scientists see astrologers as crazy or even crooks. In fact astrologers are mostly nice people who genuinely wish to help others. But the claim they repeatedly make (astrology is true because based on experience) is simply mistaken – what they see as its strength (experience) is actually its weakness (no controls).
The case for astrology
The case for astrology is that a warm and sympathetic astrologer provides low-cost non-threatening therapy that is otherwise hard to come by. You get emotional comfort, spiritual support, and interesting ideas to stimulate self-examination. In a dehumanised society astrology provides ego support at a very low price. Where else can you get this sort of thing these days?
In short, there is more to astrology than being true or false. But note the dilemma – to get the benefits you have to believe in something that is untrue. The same dilemma can apply elsewhere as in psychotherapy and even religion, so it is not unique to astrology. Nevertheless it presents an ethical problem that astrologers have generally failed to recognise let alone resolve.
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Eagleton on Hobsbawm
‘…the autobiography is a covertly anti-intellectual genre.’
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Death Threat for US College Professor
Muqtedar Khan of Adrian College in Michigan criticises bin Laden, Christian fundamentalists and hawkish U.S. government officials.
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Pedantry
Well it’s shooting fish in a barrel, but I just have to say something. I know it’s an easy target, people getting university degrees in video games. But so what? Did I ever sign the International Agreement on Not Shooting at Easy Targets? Not that I remember.
And there is actually a serious point to the whole matter – which is that people seem to have no idea that there is, or there can be, or it is possible to imagine that there is, any difference between education as vocational training and education as a good in itself. If vocational training is the only purpose of education, then fine, teach people to design video games, there’s good money in it. But if it has anything to do with ideas about valuing understanding and knowledge as intrinsic goods for humans, then teaching people to design video games at university might not be such a brilliant idea. Maybe that would be a better subject for technical colleges. But meditation on such possibilities seems a bit scarce in video game circles.
More such research will boom, says Janet Murray at Georgia Tech’s School of Literature, Communication, and Culture. ‘There is this critical need for the game designers of the future to be broadly educated in the liberal arts,’ she says. ‘It’s not surprising that several people working in game design at higher levels hold degrees in film.’
So…broadly educated in the liberal arts means having a degree in film? Not history, not philosophy, not French or German, but film? Will education in the future be carried on entirely by means of pictures? With the slight limitations that implies? One can’t help wondering. The fish are a little too comfortable in their barrel.
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Donald Davidson
The philsopher died in Berkeley yesterday.
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Biography Can Be Tricky
Are people who knew the subject the best witnesses, or disabled by bias?
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That’s ‘Game and Simulation Arts’ to You
Imagine, teachers who think video games are trivial!
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Good Thing the Mad Despot Doesn’t Exist
‘…religion is not just incongruent with morality but in essential ways incompatible with it.’
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Shrill? Moi?
But then it’s the fashion, Humpty Dumptyism is. Or perhaps that’s wrong, perhaps it’s never not been the fashion, in which case it’s not the fashion, it’s just what humans do. No more a fashion than eating or breathing. But it’s hard to believe that it’s not at least a little more pervasive and evident and popular now in the age of mass media and incessant communication and non-stop information – not to mention democracy. Henry VIII and Louis XIV didn’t have a lot of need to persuade the farm laborers and weavers and sturdy beggars of their world to love and admire and vote for them, so that must have cut back on the amount of word play right there. And then there’s selling, too. If there’s not much to sell – ‘You can have the brown cloth or the other brown cloth’ – there’s not much need for advertising language, is there. No, surely it’s fair to say there’s more Humpty Dumptyism around now than there was in, say, 1479 or even 1979.
And I must say, I’m enjoying a good malicious laugh at Fox News and its version of the practice. Fair and balanced indeed – and thinking it owned the words! What next! I think we should start suing everyone who uses the words ‘butterfly’ and ‘wheel’ and ‘nonsense’. I don’t know which is funnier, Fox claiming to be fair and balanced, or Fox claiming that people would be confused about Franken’s meaning, or the mental picture of the courtroom squealing with helpless laughter as the judge questioned Fox’s lawyer, or Fox calling Franken ‘shrill and unstable’. Okay, I’ve decided: that last bit is the funniest. Fox calling other people shrill! No wonder the courtroom was falling about!
It’s good to have a source of laughter and derision from the right now and then, when the left seems to spend so much time making a fool of itself. The item about Brown University’s ‘Third World Training Program’ I posted yesterday is enough to make one want to join some third direction that hasn’t been named yet. Not mainstream, thank you very much, not moderate, no, it’s not radicalism I object to, it’s bloody silliness.
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Redefine
It’s interesting how willing people often are to redefine religion in order to defend it, and how thoroughly they’re willing to redefine it for that purpose. In fact they do such a thorough job of it that one would have thought there was nothing left that needed defending. Who would bother to argue against feelings of awe or wonder, or an appreciation of stories and myths and poetry? I certainly wouldn’t, in fact I think those are fine things. But they’re not what I take religion to be, and I don’t think they’re what people generally mean when they talk about religion, either. If that’s what religion means, then what do we call what I mean by religion, to wit: belief in the existence of a supernatural being who created the universe, and perhaps personal immortality for humans?
Richard Dawkins discussed this issue in his usual incisive way a few years ago in an article that is also included in his most recent book, A Devil’s Chaplain. I urge you to read the article, it makes my point for me. I feel like quoting the whole thing but will restrain myself.
If you count Einstein and Hawking as religious, if you allow the cosmic awe of Goodenough, Davies, Sagan, and me as true religion, then religion and science have indeed merged, especially when you factor in such atheistic priests as Don Cupitt and many university chaplains. But if the term religion is allowed such a flabbily elastic definition, what word is left for conventional religion, religion as the ordinary person in the pew or on the prayer mat understands it today–indeed, as any intellectual would have understood it in previous centuries, when intellectuals were religious like everybody else?
Just so. Very well, if I’m quite wrong about what the word ‘religion’ means, and it’s really just a word for some attitudes and emotions rather than a set of supernatural truth claims, fine. That’s not what I’m talking about then in the ‘Science and Religion’ In Focus. I’m talking about something else – you know – that familiar stuff about God and Jesus and Allah, prayers and the soul and heaven, resurrection and immortality and sin and atonement. I don’t know what the right word for that is if it’s not religion, and I’m not at all convinced that people who claim that’s not what the word ‘religion’ refers to are correct, but at any rate that is the subject I’m talking about.
If God is a synonym for the deepest principles of physics, what word is left for a hypothetical being who answers prayers, intervenes to save cancer patients or helps evolution over difficult jumps, forgives sins or dies for them? If we are allowed to relabel scientific awe as a religious impulse, the case goes through on the nod. You have redefined science as religion, so it’s hardly surprising if they turn out to ‘converge.’
Just so, again. It’s sheer Humpty Dumptyism, is what it is. ‘Religion is whatever I say it is for the purposes of this discussion so that I can claim that atheists and secularists are silly and shallow, dogmatic and ignorant, stubborn and perverse.’ Only in Looking-glass Land where words don’t mean what they mean.
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Echoes of Hate Week?
Brown University’s Third World Transition Program sounds like good intentions run amok.
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Fair, Balanced, Honest, Reasonable, Polite
Fox News makes complete fool of itself by suing a comededian, thus catapulting his book to best-seller list.
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Most People
And so back to this nagging question of majority opinion and how coercive it can be. One issue is what one might call mission creep – the way we extend democracy and majoritarianism from the political, electoral realm to other areas where it is arguably less useful, where it is in fact arguably harmful, such as opinion, education, culture. This creep or extension may or may not be a good idea, but the question whether it is or not doesn’t get enough discussion, because people don’t really notice when the extension is happening. The border between politics and everything else gets ignored: everything is political, and majority opinion is right and should be heeded in all areas of life, not just in who gets elected president or councillor. The erasure or at least re-positioning of that border is in many ways a good thing, because it is for instance a political question who does all the housework and why. But in many other ways that border-shift is a very bad thing, and in fact B and W was founded in order to point out some of the ways politics obscures issues instead of clarifying them. So in that sense it’s all one phenomenon we’re talking about here: using one kind of thought when another kind is what’s needed.
So with using the majority as a cattle prod to keep people in line. ‘Most people don’t think what you think, therefore what you think must be wrong.’ Well, no, not necessarily. It’s not completely unknown in history for most people to think things that are in fact not true. It’s not crystal clear that majority opinion is even able to choose the best person to vote for in any given election, so why would it be unerring on any other subject? ‘Two million people bought that book, therefore it must be good.’ Well, no, not necessarily. Maybe the book had a lot of publicity. Maybe it depends how we define ‘good’. Maybe the particular two million people who bought that book wouldn’t know a good book from a plate of chopped liver. ‘Most people around here believe in God.’ Well, maybe, but then they’ve been listening to people like you say that most people believe in God all their lives, haven’t they, so maybe that constant repetition has influenced what they believe, and furthermore maybe they feel embarrassed or ashamed to say they don’t believe what most people believe, so that it all becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Could that have anything to do with it?
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Modern History Not Popular
Oxford college for mature students drops course for lack of demand.
