Originally a comment by Your Name’s not Bruce? on Strange man.
“I believe, in the next couple of decades, there will be millions of people living in space. That’s how fast this is going to accelerate,” he said.
There’s a small problem with this. We don’t know how to live in space. I believe it was from someone posting here on B&W that I learned of the book A City on Mars by Kelly Weinersmith and Zach Weinersmith. Their conclusion? Not soon, not likely. The problem? It’s not only the Rocket Science, it’s the Us Science.
A short list of things we don’t know about (not all from the book, and in no particular order):
Part 1) Rocket science
How to build Really Big Things in space.
How to build Really Big Things that Spin in space.
How to build Really Big Things on moons and planets.
How to build large scale, long term closed loop systems.
How to mine and process materials in space
Part 2) Us science
Sex in space.
Conception, gestation and birth in space.
Growth and maturation in space.
How to grow lots of food in space (see “closed loop system” above).
How to build a community/society/polity in space.
What happens when the Company Town controls the air you breathe?
Etc.
According to Google, the most people launched into space on one flight was 8; and the largest number ofhumans in space at one time up to now has been 19. Millions in 20 years? No. Do we really want that many rockets built* and launched in that period of time? Fuck no.
And what exactly are a million people going to do in space? Is there a need for that many people to go into space? Fragile space stations, and Lunar or Martian colonies are never going to be insurance policies against human extinction (let alone biospheric extinction). As far as we’re concerned, Earth is it. The chances of self-sustaining, off-Earth human settlements are remote. They will always be more vulnerable than Earth. If planetary disaster did strike, rendering Earth uninhabitable, such colonies would be, at best, lifeboats with no one to rescue them.
Questions of time frame and material feasability aside, do we really want corporations or individuals claiming for themselves a Manifest Destiny in space, claiming territories to which they have no right, squandering resources they can buy, but which the planet cannot afford? Are the communitis/societies/polities they dream of spawning going to be bastions of freedom and liberty, when there’s always going to be someone able to pull the plug, or vent the atmosphere? How do we live off the Earth when we haven’t learned (or have forgotten how) to live in it and on it?
*Sure, some will be reusable, or partly so, but you’re going to need a huge fleet, which will be a huge drain on resources, and a huge source of pollution from both construction and launch. Musk’s Starship, which will supposedly carry up to 100 people at once, would require 10,000 launches to loft 1,000,000 people into space. Since 1957, in the total history of space flight, the total number of orbital launches of all kinds, by all nations and companies has been about 7,300. The number of space launches with humans aboard (which also includes suborbital flights)? About 400.

