Originally a comment by Claire on Ask Doctor Oz next. (Excuse two guest posts from the same person in one day but if you people will insist on being wantonly informative and clarifying this way it simply can’t be helped.)

Herd immunity. For a pandemic. Fuck.

Herd immunity is a population specific term. Herd immunity is used in humans for very specific reasons. Calculating the vaccination rate required to reduce infections in a population. In a retrospective manner, looking at historical data. Projecting into the future in worse case scenarios and measuring against interventions and their efficacy.

By the time you’re working with populations, they’ve stopped being people and have become mere numbers. Epidemiologists have to remind themselves from … Read the rest

Peter Baker on Trump’s Twitter frenzy yesterday…

… embracing fringe conspiracy theories claiming that the coronavirus death toll has been exaggerated and that street protests are actually an organised coup against him.

In a concentrated pre-dawn burst, the President posted or retweeted 89 messages between 5.49am and 8.04am on Sunday on top of 18 the night before. He resumed on Sunday night.

Cool that he has so much free time, as well as so much good sense, discipline, sense of proportion, conscience, dedication…

In the blast of social media messages, Trump also embraced a call to imprison New York Governor Andrew Cuomo; threatened to send federal forces against demonstrators outside the White House; attacked CNN and NPR; embraced a

Originally a comment by Claire on Expertise.

Sigh. Why aren’t people taught risk better in school? I find that many people outside of STEM (and many within it too) just do not understand risk, nor do they understand the difference between the two models

If the probability that a woman is injured in a tackle from a transwoman is 20-30% (as per World Rugby) then the demoninator is the tackle. In Harper’s formulation, it’s more complicated but the answer may not be what she expects.

Let’s propose an imaginary trans woman who had been a short, weedy man and transition made him lose muscle and even bone density to that of a woman’s (unlikely but this is a thought … Read the rest

Let’s take a different approach.

One of Donald Trump’s top new medical advisers is urging the White House to embrace a “herd immunity” strategy to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Herd-immunity strategies entail allowing disease to spread through much of the population, thereby building natural immunity to the deadly, highly contagious virus. Basing its reporting on “five people familiar with the discussions,” The Washington Post says the Trump White House has already begun to implement some policies along these lines.

One tiny issue here (along with others) – from what I’ve seen it’s looking as if there is no natural immunity to this virus. People have been getting it again, after recovering the first time.

The approach’s chief proponent is

Man who calls himself a woman explains how wrong it is to think men playing on women’s rugby teams would be a danger to women.

“Well, frankly, I think [the leaders of World Rugby] had their minds made up, before they called the meeting,” Harper said. “It would have been nice to have seen a trans woman rugby player there, but I doubt it would have made any difference.”

Would it though? Would it have been nice? Suppose you’re on a committee working out legislation on rape; would it be nice to have a rapist there?

The use of “trans woman” works so well to disguise this absurd “include the aggressors in the conversation” bullshit. It wouldn’t sound so persuasive … Read the rest

Clever trick!

The Secret Service had asked for a room close to the president. But Mar-a-Lago said it was too late. The room was booked. Would agents like a room across the street from the president, instead?

March 2017, this was. They didn’t waste much time.

The next time, the Secret Service didn’t take the same risk. It paid Mar-a-Lago to book rooms for two weeks at a time — locking them up before the club could rent them to others, according to newly released records and emails.

For Trump’s club, it appeared, saying no to the Secret Service had made it a better customer. The agency was paying for rooms on nights when Trump wasn’t even visiting — to

Trump is having success in stoking violence.

Yesterday in Portland:

A person was shot and killed in downtown Portland Saturday night as a pro-Trump car caravan wound its way through city streets, clashing with counterprotesters along the way.

…

Images from the scene Saturday night show a man wearing a hat featuring the logo of Patriot Prayer, a group that has regularly attended, hosted and engaged in violence at Portland protests through the years. The man was also wearing a “Thin Blue Line” patch on his shorts, indicating support for the police.

The shooting occurred around 8:45 p.m. near the corner of Southwest Third Avenue and Alder Street. Portland police are investigating it as a homicide.

…

The lead-up

Most most most most most maximum progressive. Also most vulnerable.

I particularly love that this enlightened person is a “sensitivity reader.” Ho yus, all about the sensitivity.… Read the rest

You don’t need to be black to be outraged. You need to be American and be outraged. pic.twitter.com/jL4kW5chss

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 30, 2020

… Read the rest

Yet again, I don’t understand how it works. Yet again I don’t understand the basic concept. Yet again I think it’s the concept that’s broken, not my reading comprehension.

Again, disagree with me as much as you like, but I am not saying things I know to be untrue.

You say only cis women are women, which denies trans women's rights as women. I consider that transphobia. That does not make me a liar, and again I'd like you not to call me one,

— Rupert Goodwins (@rupertg) August 30, 2020

Rupert Goodwins says that saying only women are women is to deny trans women’s [i.e. men’s] rights as women.

That’s such a peculiar thing to say, and to think. … Read the rest

Oh ffs.

"When we talk about election security I want to reassure the American people it'll be difficult for anyone — China, Russia, Iran — to change actual vote tallies" — Ratcliffe (this downplays others types of interference, such as Russia's anti-Clinton propaganda campaign in '16) pic.twitter.com/jY7eKjPwIP

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 30, 2020

It even signals that that’s what he’s doing – saying “it’ll be difficult for anyone — China, Russia, Iran — to change actual vote tallies” just underlines that it will be easy for anyone to do other things to influence the election. It will be difficult for anyone to change actual vote tallies but easy to change voter views and motivations, by lying and fakery and … Read the rest

More openly fascist by the day:

A pro-Trump caravan of trucks drove into downtown Portland on Saturday to clash with Black Lives Matter protesters there, leaving one person, who was wearing the insignia of far-right group Patriot Prayer, dead.

Trump cheered on a caravan of his supporters that rolled into Portland on Saturday as “GREAT PATRIOTS,” even after video showed them driving into protesters, hurling tear gas and shooting them and a New York Times reporter with paintballs.

He did.

GREAT PATRIOTS! https://t.co/BWGxVoBTmI

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 30, 2020

On Thursday, Trump’s aides said they were hoping to see more violence and chaos as part of their reelection strategy.

On Saturday, grassroots Trump supporters delivered more

About this “We’re not going to brief you on security threats any more, we’ll just send you a few written notes” thing:

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has informed Senate and House intelligence committees that it will no longer brief Congress on foreign efforts to interfere in the November election, according to congressional Democrats.

In a joint statement released Saturday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said Congress had been set for briefings on election security in mid-September. But briefings for members of Congress, including the House and Senate intelligence committees, by the office of National Intelligence Director John Ratcliffe have now been called off, they said.

“This is

This Serena Daniari guy is a trip.

Dear transphobic TERFs:@KnownHeretic @fair_maiden7 @TCourgette @lenadoppel @sapphicmar just to name a few!

Your validation doesn’t make me a woman. I know who I am. Trans is beautiful. pic.twitter.com/y9e1JbnxMX

— Serena Daniari (@serenajazmine) August 28, 2020

If he’d just written the words, they’d still be wrong, but there would be nothing remarkable about them. But no, he included the photo, as if to demonstrate that the reason he knows who he is (i.e. a woman) is because of that photo. What is a woman? Why, someone with eyebrows six inches above her eyes, and a tiny nose, and gigantic bulbous lips – that’s what a woman is. A woman looks more like a … Read the rest

Speaking of Trump’s efforts to make sure that everyone Catches This Thing as fast as possible, yesterday –

No, I want Big Ten, and all other football, back – NOW. The Dems don’t want football back, for political reasons, but are trying to blame me and the Republicans. Another LIE, but this is what we are up against! They should also open up all of their Shutdown States.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 28, 2020

Football! All of football! High school included! Down to the smallest Montana town, it all has come back, NOW.

That’ll get those daily numbers up!

Meanwhile…

As revelers at Trump rally on Friday booed suggestions to wear masks, the Washington Post has published

This is fine, this is normal, this is nothing to worry about.

CNN White House correspondent Jim Acosta called the maskless crowd at President Donald Trump’s Republican National Convention potential “super-spreaders”  of the coronavirus, and said a senior White House official’s explanation for the lack of social distancing “might blow you away.”

After Trump’s Thursday night RNC speech, Acosta delivered a report from the South Lawn of the White House, where hundreds of maskless revelers had been seated for the festivities. Anchor Wolf Blitzer tossed ti [sic] Acosta by noting “You had about 2,000 people sitting very close, and most of them were not wearing masks.”

“Yeah, Wolf, we not only heard a lot of gaslighting tonight, we

Oh, ok, fine. Two months before the election the DNI stops briefing Congress on election security. Brilliant plan.

They might as well be sending out embossed announcements on heavy paper saying “We are helping Trump steal the election, you’re welcome.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has informed the House and Senate Select Committees on Intelligence that it will no longer be briefing on election security issues, a senior administration official told CNN. It will provide written updates, the official said.

The official added that other agencies supporting election security, including the Department of Justice, Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security, intend to continue briefing Congress.

For now. For a few more hours. Maybe. Expect … Read the rest

A clinical psychologist argues that we need to set aside the bouquet of armchair diagnoses of Trump and settle on the one overriding diagnosis that captures it all.

I invited Dr. Greenwood, who is a clinical psychologist and founder of The Washington Center For Cognitive Therapy, to answer a few questions. In addition to his presence o[n] Medium, he has just launched a new website, dutytoinform.org. You can follow him on Twitter at @dutytoinform.

The first question is why do we need one overarching diagnosis.

Mental health professionals have offered several diagnoses of the president. They have done so usually to warn the public about his psychiatric vulnerabilities and dangerousness. They want to engage the public in

Originally a comment by Sastra on Merfinks.

Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were indeed suicide threats or attempts when Rowling came out as gender critical. Such wailing and gnashing of teeth, fan clubs panicking, and breathless article after article expressing shock and concern over the effect on the most vulnerable, most marginalized, most suicidal group in the world.

There’s not a teenager out there who isn’t well aware that transgender people routinely kill themselves if not accepted as “who they know they are.” They’re reminded of that over and over, it’s drummed into their heads by Tumblr and Twitter and Tavistock and all the handwringing social media and organizations throwing out statistics because this is a real, … Read the rest

Now that’s some player activism.

In the aftermath of player protests across various professional sports leagues, the Board of Elections in the City of New York announced Friday that Madison Square Garden will serve as a polling site for the upcoming general election.

And it’s not just the aftermath; it’s what the players asked for.

Manhattan voters who are assigned to Madison Square Garden can vote there on Election Day, Nov. 3, as well as an early voting period from Oct. 24 until Nov. 1, with hours varying. The polling site will be located at MSG’s Chase Square at the 7th Avenue entrance between 31st and 33rd Streets.

The news comes after a three-day period of social activism from