Guest post: Kind of basic
Originally a comment by Screechy Monkey on Barr seems eager.
Old conventional wisdom: Biden needs to win the popular vote by ~ 3 points to avoid an Electoral College loss
New conventional wisdom: Biden needs to win the popular vote by ~ 5-6 points to avoid it being close enough for Trump to steal.
Welcome to America, everyone. The shining city on a hill. (gag) A beacon of democracy. (eye roll)
On a related note, David Frum had a good Twitter thread recently where he called out the utter nonsense that gets babbled every Inauguration Day, when television talking heads marvel at the “peaceful transfer of power” that occurs, even between rival political factions. Such a uniquely American tradition! Except.. it’s not. Pretty much every other democracy has mastered that whole peaceful transfer of power thing… it’s kind of a basic requirement of being a functional democracy. Those other countries just don’t hold a big spectacle and pat themselves on the back for it. (“Yes, the streets of Ottawa are full today to witness Stephen Harper peacefully hand over the reins of power to Justin Trudeau. What a triumph of democracy! Canadians should be so proud for not shooting each other instead!”)
It WAS genuinely impressive when George Washington opted not to seek a third term, defying the speculation that he would be a monarch in all but name, and at least as impressive when John Adams, defeated after a single term, handed over power to his (then-) bitter rival Jefferson. But that was when America was a mere toddler. It’s not supposed to be an accomplishment any more. The inevitable cooing we’ll hear if (hopefully) Biden peacefully takes over from Trump will be the equivalent of applauding an adult for being potty-trained.
Even if Biden wins indisputably, say 300 electoral votes or thereabouts, and a popular vote landslide, Donnie Dipshit will not go out quietly. He’s going to say he was cheated until his dying day. His ego won’t acknowledge his being a LOSER. I really don’t think Biden will win that decidedly, so it’s going to be an epic shitshow.
I’m all for excessively patting ourselves on the back and being inappropriately proud of our peaceful transitions of power if it means we keep doing them.
I’ve always thought the inauguration day in the USA a load of overblown hype. I prefer the British way. PM of the losing party visits the Queen, says bye bye ma’am, hope you like the next one.
Ai em sure I will, Mr er er er
Next one visits the Queen and says, I’m next – Ma-am.
Ah yes, yes Mrs er er.
Old one decamps from Downing Street pronto, new one moves in with about 20 words on the doorstep.
Job done.
Only picture is of a car heading towards and away from Buckingham Palace.
The English bourgeois-democratic revolution to get rid of feudalism cf 1789 in France is still a work in progress, and will be ongoing until they get rid of the House of Lords.
(When the Australian colonies federated in 1901, an aristocracy and HoL were mooted and got ridiculed everywhere.)
Cromwell’s revolution of the 1640s ended with the Restoration and the hunting-down of regicides. The real English democratic revolution started in England’s American colonies, became a lighthouse for the rest of the world, and its influence spread back to England herself, dragging its establishment kicking and screaming into something just perhaps like modernity. Though Boris J arguably marks the limit of how far it can go.
The President of the US is constitutionally an elected 18th C monarch, with powers to match.
He is now, but those powers were not granted by the Constitution. They have been seized over time by a succession of presidents dating back at least to Woodrow Wilson, maybe further, with the permission of Congress. Who now lacks the backbone and cohesion to seize them back.
I remember reading about one of the 19th century presidents (late 19th century, maybe Grant, but I think it might have been one of the ones after Grant) who refused to consider putting forests under federal protection because he did not have that power. It needed to go through Congress (and Congress wasn’t having any of it). Now the presidents do it all the time…because earlier presidents found work arounds to seize the power they craved, and everyone let them get away with it.
Trump is the inevitable outcome of a system with checks and balances that have no legal enforcement mechanism, that are honored only on the basis of integrity, something sadly lacking in many of our politicians throughout history.